The demographic dividend for India: prospects and policies

Samir Guha Roy, Indian Statistical Institute

Revised :The study addresses the issues of demographic transition, age transition, and economic potential of changing balance between age groups in India. Mortality level is nearing a plateau: fertility will reach replacement level by 2015. The population of the working age group will reach will reach its peak at about 65 per cent of the total population around 2025,which corresponds to intermediate stage of demographic transition. There will be a concomitant dip in the overall dependency to about 55 per cent. The added productivity of this age segment and optimally low social burden will provide “demographic dividend". The labour force growth rate of 2.16 per cent has also exceeded the total population growth rate of 1.75 per cent during 1990-2000. The more people the country has in the work force, the greater the savings.In order to maximize this benefit, India’s Five Year Plans have accorded priority to key sectors like education, health & employment.