Adult mortality in the developing world: new estimates

Kenneth H. Hill, Johns Hopkins University
Yoonjoung Choi, Johns Hopkins University

We report results of a recent research project estimating levels and trends in adult mortality in the developing world. Based on results for 30 countries spanning five decades and covering 80% of the population of the developing world, we find a wide range of adult mortality risks. In Mongolia, over half of the males who survive to 15 die before 60, whereas the corresponding risk for females in the Republic of Korea is only 7%. In all countries except one, female probabilities of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 are lower than for males. Adult mortality has been declining in the developing countries included in this study at about the same rate as observed in England and Wales in the 20th century. However, the representation of countries in the data set covers little of sub-Saharan Africa, where the impact of the HIV epidemic has been most severe.