Assessing the triple burden of HIV, TB and pneumonia in South Africa using multiple-cause life table analysis, 1997-2001

Sulaiman Bah, Medical University of Southern Africa

In countries where HIV/AIDS is stigmatized, it is problematic to use only underlying causes-of-death statistics to assess the size of deaths due to HIV/AIDS. This problem can be partially addressed using multiple- cause data. The data analyzed are the first set of multiple-cause data for South Africa, and based on all registered deaths over the period, 1997-2001. The paper starts off with constructing adjusted life tables for the intercensal period 1996-2001 and proceeds by analyzing the quality of causes-of-death statistics (partly based on a 12% sample of all registered deaths in the study period). The paper uses the pattern-of-failure model to study trends in multiple causes of death and to construct multiple-cause life tables for South Africa, with emphasis on HIV, TB and influenza and pneumonia. The paper draws conclusions about the triple burden of these causes of death in the light of the quality of causes of death data.