Analysis of demographic models used to incorporate HIV/AIDS-related mortality

Tammany J. Mulder, U.S. Department of State
Peter Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau

Since the advent of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, demographers have attempted to model the impact of the pandemic on the population. The importance of such models increased as the prevalence levels rose and the devastating impact became clear in many countries. This paper will compare two models: the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) module of Spectrum, developed by The Futures Group International, which is widely used by organizations around the world, including The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS); and the RUPHIVAIDS model developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, which will be used by national statistical offices. In order to understand the applicability and reliability of the methods and assumptions used, we will compare the differences in the underlying assumptions of the two models, as well as the impact on the resulting demographic and epidemiological outcomes. In addition, results from each model will be compared to observed demographic and HIV/AIDS-related statistics.