Intended and actual transition to a first child in France: the role of marital and professional status

Maria Rita Testa, Vienna Institute of Demography
Laurent Toulemon, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

In France, like in all European countries, the birth of the first child, last transition to adulthood, is delayed. Using a 5-year follow-up survey (1998-2003), we study the role of three main factors on the arrival of the first child while controlling for background variables: a) intentions to have a baby and the intended timing of childbearing; b) firmness of fertility intentions, measured by the perceived likelihood to have a child and/or to change one’s mind, and the perceived partner’s agreement to have or not have a child; c) marital and professional status of both partners and other external constraints. Our main result is that unemployment is not linked to any change in fertility intentions, but is an obstacle for a couple’s actual fertility. The perceived likelihood to have a baby turns out to be a good predictor of fertility outcomes, after controlling for intentions, backgrounds and constraints.