The Kenya stall

Charles Westoff, Princeton University
Anne R. Cross, ORC Macro

The 2003 DHS for Kenya has indicated a clear stall in the decline of fertility, in contraceptive prevalence, and most intriguing a reversal of the long-term trend toward intentions to have fewer children. This trend seems pervasive and has occurred across ages and parities, in urban and rural areas, and in every province. It is particularly dramatic among the less educated while among women with at least some secondary schooling, the familiar trend toward wanting fewer children has continued. The paper will explore the details of these changes and will include analyses of the relationship with HIV/AIDS and with the recent increase in child mortality. The shift in preferences is only part of the story, however, since there has also been a significant increase in the proportion of births that are unwanted. Recent trends in contraceptive failure rates will be analyzed.