Evaluation of the impact of family planning programmes on fertility in East Azerbaijan province: a multilevel modelling approach

Hassan Eini-Zinab, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology

Multiple multilevel regression analyses were used to evaluate the impact of FPP on the fertility of married couples in East Azerbaijan, Iran. Data are drawn from a DHS-type survey conducted in 2000 as well as program records maintained by FP clinics. The target group was ever-married women using public FP outlets (n=3016). Multivariate analysis shows that 95% of the variance in the CEB is explained by: contraceptive ever use, marital status, conjugal patterns, duration of marriage, duration of contraception, education, breastfeeding, FPP supply side, accessibility of FP services, child loss, demand for children, and QOC in SDPs. Path analysis shows that individual factors have the highest impact on fertility and community and program variables are the second and third most important factors. Though the analyses indicate that FPP has a significant role in fertility reduction its impact becomes negligible once the effect of the socio-demographic characteristics of women is controlled.