Birth planning and population prospects in China and India

Sabu S. Padmadas, University of Southampton
Bohua Li, China Population Information and Research Center (CPIRC)
James Brown, University of Southampton
Guangzhou Wang, China Population Information and Research Center (CPIRC)

China’s fertility decline began almost two decades ago while Indian fertility has only recently started declining; consequentially India’s population is likely to exceed that of China’s in another 27-30 years. Whilst both countries, in the near future, are likely to benefit a ‘demographic bonus’ in terms of human capital resources the magnitude and directions of future population growth remain largely uncertain particularly in the context of changing attitudes towards reproduction and family formation. The future growth trajectories mainly depend on when (timing) and how many (number) children are added in the existing population. This paper quantifies the potential impact of birth planning dynamics in China and India on the future population growth patterns, using event history and cohort component models. Population forecasts will be made exploring the current policy scenarios highlighting the possible shifts in the economically active populations and potential gender discrepancies in the future reproductive and elderly populations.