Fertility dynamics in Iran, 1970-2000: parity progression ratios and measures of starting, spacing and stopping

Meimanat Hosseini Chavoshi, Australian National University

Iran's rapid fall of fertility has been confirmed by analysis of a number of surveys. Fertility has fallen simultaneously in all age groups and in all geographic settings. However, it is well known that trends in the cross-sectional total fertility rate can be confounded by changes in the timing of births across women's lifetimes (tempo) as well as by changes in the numbers of children that they have by the time they end their childbearing (quantum). The issue arises as to whether trends in alternative measures of fertility that control for the parity distribution rather than the age distribution (age at first birth, age at last birth, parity progression ratios) show the same results as observed for changes in the total fertility rate. To do this, we use the 2000 IDHS to calculate time trends in parity progression ratios and measures of starting, spacing and stopping of childbearing during the last three decades.