The differences in population characteristics between an administrative system and census data, and their impact on population estimates: a comparison of methods of estimating population in Israel

Ahmad S. Hleihel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel

The Component Method (CM) of population estimation uses census counts plus the effect of vital statistics events, internal migration and international migration. In Israel all individuals’ events are registered in the administrative system (AS). To apply the CM we translate individuals’ records (from the census and the AS) to an aggregate level and calculate population estimates in aggregated components. However, this method disconnects individuals’ characteristics from aggregated characteristics, and biased estimates result when individual census characteristics differ from the same individual’s characteristics in the AS. The Israel Central Bureau of Statistics (ICBS) conducted a project to implement another method, that makes it possible to conduct follow-ups on the individual level, rather than on the aggregated level. In this paper I will describe the two methods; present the advantages and disadvantages of each method; and finally, analyze the different results of the two methods, focusing on their effect on internal migration.