Toward a theory of mobility transition: test of Zelinsky's theory with the Japanese and Turkish data 1955-2000

Ayse Gedik, Middle East Technical University

In this paper, based on the empirical evidence of Japanese and Turkish data, some new insights and modifications of the Zelinsky’s theory are presented. Only two types of migration, ie., rural-urban and urban-to-urban, will be considered. Unlike Zelinsky: intra-urban migration is not included; and migration rates and numbers of migrants are analysed separately. Turning point in the mobility transition takes place before the level of urbanization reaches 50%. The turning point takes place at a lower levels of urbanization and GDP per capita. Unlike Zelinsky, "both" rates and numbers of migrants of rural-to-urban and urban-to-urban migration exhibit an inverted-U shape. Unlike Zelinsky, demographical characteristics of the population (mainly, the age structure and the population growth rates) and migration are not merely correlates, but the demographical characteristics of the population directly affect the migration rates and numbers.