The effects of shrinking cohorts on family formation: historical evidence in Spain, France, and United States in the 20th Century

Anna Cabré, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Albert Esteve, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics

The effects of cohort sizes on family formation have been thoroughly studied, following Easterlin’s seminal work, which identifies the labour market as the explanatory factor. The present paper proposes a different but converging hypothesis: with universal female marriage, women in shrinking birth-cohorts would marry younger and in greater proportions, that is, the marriage market would be the explanatory factor. This kind of marriage squeeze should have rapid stimulating effects on female nuptiality, contrary to small effects where there is an excess of females. In two former works, the authors have developed the mechanisms of adjustment and tested them successfully for 20th Century Spain. Using IPUMSi census microdata and formal demographic analysis, the study is now extended to France and the United States, seeking the generalization of the proof in cases that differ by their chronologies and sex imbalances at specific moments, such as post World War II.