Population projections for small areas: method and applications for districts and local population projections in Brazil

Paulo Jannuzzi, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

Population projections for small areas are becoming more and more requested by public and private organizations around the world as a way to improve their planning capabilities. Most of the proposed models are data intensive, based on administrative records maintained by local agencies or governmental offices. As coverage and quality of this type of data are usually poor in great parts of underdeveloped countries, these models can not be useful. This paper presents an alternative method to produce population estimates in small areas, useful when good census data and vital statistics are available. The presented model is an integrated method of population projections using cohort-component method at regional level joined with a system of differential equations to split the total population to municipal bounds. The paper is structured in two sections. First it presents the integrated model demographic components-dynamic system, and then it brings applications at district and local levels in Brazil.