Past, present, and foreseeable childbearing patterns among ethnic groups in the United States

Ward Kingkade, U.S. Census Bureau
Frederick W. Hollmann, U.S. Census Bureau

Among industrialized countries, the US is characterized by above-average fertility. Fertility levels and patterns, differs systematically between racial and ethnic groups in the US population. This variation is observed in both period and cohort measures, although the latter exhibit more regular trends than the former measures. The present study investigates US fertility dynamics at the national level in the recent past for 3 major racial/ethnic categories: Hispanics, Black Non-Hispanics, and Non-Black Non-Hispanics. In addition to past and present trends, future implications are assessed through projections, in which exercise an approach that incorporates uncertainty and a conventional deterministic “scenario” approach are contrasted.