Spatial modelling of HIV prevalence in Kenya

Livia Montana, ORC Macro
Melissa Neuman, ORC Macro
Vinod Mishra, ORC Macro

This study will model and map HIV prevalence in Kenya in relation to its spatial and behavioral determinants, using data from the 2003 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The 2003 Kenya DHS was the first population-based national survey to link individual HIV test results with the full set of behavioral, social, and demographic indicators included in the survey. The survey also collected spatial coordinates of the communities where survey respondents lived. These coordinates will be used to estimate spatial indicators such as distance to roads, population density, and others. Using these spatial, social, demographic, and behavioral indicators, we will develop a model to predict HIV prevalence. We will apply this model to map HIV concentration areas at sub-provincial level, and will assess the Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) coverage in relation to the spatial distribution of HIV prevalence.