Theory and 'demography': a longitudinal empirical analysis from 1964 to 2004

Melinda Mills, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Although there has been substantial attention to methods in the field of demography, there has been no systematic analysis of theory. Via a qualitative discourse and quantitative content analysis, this paper provides an empirical review of theory use in contemporary demography by examining articles in ‘Demography’. After an examination of the level, a categorization of theoretical applications is undertaken (e.g., formal, heuristic, tool). The prominent disciplines, theorists and theories are then charted, showing a concentration of work from economy and sociology, followed by other disciplines such as biology and psychology. Certain theorists also dominate, with the work of Gary Becker, for instance, appearing in 16 percent of all articles. The attractiveness and implications of certain theories and disciplinary approaches, such as those that make individual agency more predictable and measurable, are then interpreted. The paper ends with suggestions for innovations isolating underdeveloped or ignored approaches.