Orphan crisis in Zimbabwe: rising incidence

Helen Watts, Imperial College
Benjamin A. Lopman, Imperial College
Constance Nyamukapa, Biomedical Research & Training Institute
Simon Gregson, Imperial College

The study uses data from the first two rounds of the ongoing Manicaland HIV/STD Prevention Project where 9830 individuals were recruited during the baseline household census. The rate of non-orphans becoming an orphan in this period is 23.0 per 1000py (95% CI 21.4-24.7). Incidence of maternal orphanhood and double orphanhood amongst paternal orphans rose by 21% per annum (IRR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06-1.38) and 51% per annum (IRR 1.51; 95% CI 1.10-2.06), respectively, since 1998. However, this was not the case for paternal orphanhood or double orphanhood amongst maternal orphans. The overall level of orphanhood among children aged under 15 increased from 12.2% in 1998-2000 to 17.2% in 2001-2003. The largest increase occurred in double orphans which have more than doubled in 3 years. Analysis of the dimensions of orphan populations is valuable as it enables a better understanding of the impact of HIV/AIDS on communities.