Indirect estimation of migration flows: application of new approaches to Brazilian census data 1991-2000

Cláudio C. Machado, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais

The indirect estimation methods of fertility and mortality rates are well known in demography (UN Manual X, 1987). several studies and manuals have solidified among demographers the ‘culture’ of indirect estimation of specific mortality and fertility rates whenever data are incomplete or inexistent. There is already ample literature on the indirect estimation of specific migration rates (Rogers, Willekens, Castro). However, no systematization and diffusion is as widespread as in the case of fertility and mortality. In Brazil, despite the wealth of information on migration flows provided by census data, studies on migration flows have had relatively little methodological development, especially those aiming to establish migration model schedules. This article sets out to contribute to the establishment of schedule migration curves by age in Brazil by applying and analyzing methods proposed by Rogers and al. (2003), using the 1991 and the 2000 Brazilian demographic censuses’ microdata.