The AIDS transition: impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black African / South Africans

Sandra D. Matanyaire, University of the Western Cape

At the start of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in South Africa, the black/African population was undergoing demographic transition. Mortality and fertility rates were expected to continue declining to post-transitional levels. Hitherto the black/African population is the most affected by HIV/AIDS in South Africa. Mortality increase from AIDS related deaths is reversing earlier transitional gains estimated since 1945, whilst the fertility decline is paradoxically expected to accelerate due to HIV/AIDS effects. This study investigates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the demographic transition of black/Africans. Projections of the most recent AIDS Demographic Model of the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA2002) are used to propose an AIDS transition model within the traditional demographic transition model. Implications of the AIDS transition are explored: a continued transition or a second demographic transition. The AIDS transition model accounts for new demographic patterns and contributes towards new and relevant terminology.