Demographic demand for households: an application of headship method based on age-period-cohorts models

Gustavo H. Givisiez, Universidade Candido Mendes
Elzira L. Oliveira, Universidade Candido Mendes

One of the main indicators of upward social mobility in Brazil is home ownership. This is true for both poor and middle class households. There are few quantitative studies on housing demand in Brazil. This paper suggests a methodology for projecting housing demand based on housing needs in the past. It also projects housing demand controlling by dwelling inadequacies in metropolitan regions of Brazil. The method used combines headship rates estimations, age-period-cohorts models, in combination with ad hoc estimations of the housing deficit. The final product is the projection of housing demand via a demographic method, providing numbers by quality of the dwellings, sex and age of the head.