HIV/AIDS and fertility in South Africa

Oliver Zambuko, University of Natal
Akim Mturi, University of Natal

The Africa Centre Demographic Information System data is used to estimate the effect of HIV on fertility. The study shows that HIV accounts for approximately 15.3% of the fertility decline. With a population HIV prevalence of 33.2% among women in the reproductive ages, the association between HIV prevalence and the PAC(TFR)indicates that a percent change in HIV prevalence is associated with a change of 0.46% in the total fertility. Variables explaining recent fertility change due to HIV/AIDS among sexually active women are age and parity. Women in the older age groups have higher reductions in fertility as they are exposed to the infection for a longer duration and are more likely to be at the advanced stages of the disease. Indicative of a maturing epidemic is a lower relative risk of recent birth among infected women in the 15-19 age-group. This could signal a subsiding epidemic in rural South Africa.