An agent-based model to understand the diffusion of AIDS

Jeronimo O. Muniz, University of Wisconsin at Madison

This paper suggests a framework to study the diffusion of AIDS in a virtual environment hedged by observed parameters. Using an agent-based model, the aim is to simulate how HIV/AIDS spreads over time taking into account two channels of transmission (sharing infected needles and sexual intercourse) in the interaction between risk groups and non-infected agents. The government will play a role in the model representing a third agent, responsible for the provision of public policies that affect the probabilities of contamination in the interaction between agents. The simulation will help to understand the spread and the emergence of AIDS epidemics and will be useful to build what-if scenarios based on changes in the characteristics of the agents and the parameters of the model.