Age transitions and socio-economic development in Scotland, Sweden, Japan, China, Egypt and Ethiopia, 1750-2010

Bo Malmberg, Uppsala University

This paper examines the age transition hypothesis of socio-economic development by analyzing six cases. First, the timing of the four age transition phases in each country is discussed. Second, the evidence for age related characteristics are considered. The conclusion is that both the child phase, the young adult phase, the middle age phase and the old age phase does demonstrate very distinctive socio-economic development characteristics in the way suggested by the age transition hypothesis. The paper ends with a discussion of how the age transition hypothesis can be used for forecasting purposes.