Demographic consequence of mortality reversal in Russia

Evgueni Andreev, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russia

The topic of this paper is a demographic consequence of mortality growth in Russia, which continues in the country from the mid-1960s. For this purpose the hypothetical model of population dynamics was created provided that there was not turn of mortality dynamics since 1965 and the process developed as in the western countries. The model shows that human losses in period 1966-2003 due to mortality increase were about 17 million people. Comparison with last population projection for Russia shows that in 2051 the losses could grow up to 27 million. The sex structure of Russia’s population is significantly distorted due to the record gender gap in life expectancy. It is very likely that this circumstance conduces to additional female fertility decline. The version of the model based on male fertility rates shoes that number of birth in 1965-2003 would be by 1.3 million more than the actual number.

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Presented in Session 36: Demographic and socio-economic consequences of adverse mortality and health trends