Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex and household composition in Poland

Anita Abramowska, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics

The objective of this study is twofold: (1) to present the current living arrangement of the population aged 65 and over in Poland especially taking account of dependent people, (2) to project the number of dependent elderly people aged 65 and over for Poland by sex, age and family situation. On the basis of data from Population Census 2002 living arrangements of the elderly will be analysed in terms of the household types and the household position of individuals. Projections of the dependent elderly people in Poland are based on the following data: data about disability (from the Population Census 2002), data on the family situation and the population forecast to 2030. Two scenarios will be applied: in the first one, it is assumed that the rates of disability will be stationary for the period of projection, in the second one the rates of disability will be changed according to the past trends observed in Poland.