Integrating projections of households, energy use and carbon emissions for the United States

Michael Dalton, California State University, Monterey Bay
Brian C. O'Neill, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Leiwen Jiang, Brown University
John Pitkin, Analysis and Forecasting, Inc.

We explore whether expected changes in the age and size composition of U.S. households over the next 25-100 years could have a substantial influence on total energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas. We introduce 12 types of households, classified by age and size, into the U.S. region of the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model, a dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium model of energy and economic growth. The PET model translates consumption of various goods into demand for energy, other inputs, and carbon emissions. Classification of households, benchmark demand for consumer goods, and benchmark supplies of labour and capital are determined through an analysis of Consumer Expenditure Survey data. We use the ProFamy model to develop household projections for the 12 household types, and integrate these into the PET model. Our results demonstrate that demographic heterogeneity can substantially affect energy use and long-term carbon emissions.

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Presented in Session 162: Population and environment