Demographic discontinuities: young waves and labour market structure in Brazil

Alicia Bercovich, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE)

The paper refers to the demographic discontinuities in Brazil, the configuration of the so-called young waves, and the impact of the youth “boom” in the labour market structure. The Brazilian Population Censuses from 1960 to 2000 were used, as well as the National Household Surveys from the last decades. Observation of the data as from the sixties enabled the presence of demographic discontinuities to be detected by cohort analysis, the young waves, generated by them to be measured and a methodology to be developed to study the discontinuities and waves in the various social groups. The impact of the waves of young people on the composition of the labour market over the last three decades is evaluated and reflections on their consequences on the socio-political scenario are made, indicating the concordances and mismatches between the demographic phenomena and the economic and social context of each period. The work shows the potential of the approach to measure and analyze phenomena that are relevant to the planning and monitoring of actions aimed at improving living conditions and diminishing inequalities in the society.

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Presented in Session 38: Implications of cohort size and population age structure