Modelling replacement migration

Gaiane Safarova, Saint-Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences

Complicated demographic situation in Russia as a whole and its greatest non-metropolitan megacity Saint-Petersburg is characterized by the negative RNI which is not compensated by positive net migration. Thus, the total population size decreases leading to numerous socio-economical problems. In the middle-term perspective significant fertility increase is not expected, thus migration increase sometimes is considered as a solution for depopulation problem and a question concerning replacement migration is raised. Within the framework of extended Leslie matrix model computer-based technique of modelling replacement migration is suggested, Mathcad 2001 Professional being used. A problem of migration regulation for Russia and Saint-Petersburg is considered and migration streams ensuring stable population dynamics are assessed.